Viewpoint
By Don Copenhaver, President
Accurate Census stats are the foundation supporting today’s agribusiness decisions
Accuracy should remain your first and foremost consideration when you fill out your Census data next month. Conducted every 5 years by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the Census is a complete count of the nation’s farms and ranches and the people who operate them. It reflects land use and ownership, operator characteristics, production practices, income and expenditures. The Census provides the only source of uniform, comprehensive agricultural data for every county in the nation.
Forms are scheduled to be mailed Dec. 23, 2007, to collect data for the 2007 calendar year. Completed forms are due by Feb. 4, 2008. For those not motivated by community spirit or self interest, response to the Census is mandated by law. All of those who receive a Census report form must respond even if they did not operate a farm or ranch in 2007.
Please do respond. And please be as accurate as possible. All of agriculture depends on your participation. That’s because all of us want government policy and accompanying statistics that accurately reflect Midwestern agriculture. For that to occur, we have to have viable numbers from which to make accurate projections and quantifiable business decisions. You’re all familiar with the phrase so near and dear to the computer industry: Garbage in, garbage out. Nothing accurate can result from bad data.
USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service is heavily involved in Census data. NASS is located in each state with a network of statisticians that methodically count agriculture. The counting takes place through a systematic sampling of representative agricultural producers providing details about their individual operations. Those details are expanded into state and national results, publicly available at the same time to everyone. Those benchmarks have proven to be very accurate and underlie many decisions made in and around agriculture.
Those details are essential in today’s agriculture. How would you like planning your crop rotation if the statistics available were as unreliable as the Chinese government’s statistics? How about making plans to increase or decrease your cattle operation based on hearsay and rumor? What if you didn’t know what carryover stocks really and truly were?
As you would expect, in just the same way our member/owners depend on reliable statistics, MFA uses the numbers almost daily for business decisions. What better means for determining the demand for crop inputs? For potential grain movement? For planting intention information? For livestock product inventories? The numbers fueled by the Census and the related agencies that crunch those numbers provide a reality-based, rather than a supposition-based, platform from which to make decisions.
Furthermore, if we want Midwestern ag policy based on reality, we have to supply the information. The Census data develops the snapshot you use every time you refer to local or world demand, to potential production levels or supplies of commodities. It’s behind information on the availability of seed, fertilizer or the value of commodities being produced. As Gene Danekas, director of the Missouri Agricultural Statistics, asks, “Would your banker be willing to loan you capital not knowing what the potential ability to repay would be?”
Information is power. Accurate, trustworthy information is more powerful still. All of us use government data on a regular basis, and, unlike authoritarian countries, our data is unbiased and sound, something from which we can confidently base our economic projections and upon which we can make informed decisions.
The National Agricultural Statistics Service provides weekly reports on the progress and condition of major crops by state. Traders at the Chicago Board pay attention to NASS reports for a reason. NASS also produces monthly forecasts of crop production potential during the growing season. For the livestock side, the service provides monthly pork production estimates as well as milk, egg and feedlot production. Cattle production estimates are made every 6 months. Weekly estimates for dairy prices drive calculations by the Federal Milk Market Orders that establish minimum farm level milk process. NASS provides data via surveys in more than 500 reports annually.
As a highly technical industry, American agriculture relies on information to feed, fuel and clothe a growing world. From selecting inputs to determining when to sell their goods, America’s farmers need detailed, statistical information to effectively run their businesses.
Those who fear government intrusiveness can be assured that their individual information will be kept confidential—as guaranteed by law. NASS uses the information only for statistical purposes and publishes data only in tabulated totals. The report cannot be used for purposes of taxation, investigation or regulation. The privacy of individual Census records is also protected from disclosure through the Freedom of Information Act.
So please use this opportunity to keep the United States in the forefront of world agriculture: help keep U.S. agricultural data accurate and timely.
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